In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina today, 08/12/08, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama 49% to 45%, according to this latest exclusive WTVD-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released 12 weeks ago, McCain is down 2, Obama is up 2. McCain had led by 8, now 4. In Raleigh, there is slight movement to Obama. In Southern and Coastal NC, there is slight, offsetting movement to McCain. Among the better educated, there is movement to Obama. Among the less-educated, there is erosion in Obama's support. Blacks continue to vote 10:1 Obama. Whites continue to vote 2:1 McCain. Obama continues to lead 5:4 among the less affluent. McCain continues to lead 5:4 among the more affluent. Among men, McCain led by 20 points four weeks ago, leads by 9 today. Among women, Obama led by 7 points four weeks ago, leads by 2 today. A then-27-point Gender Gap is now 11 points. McCain holds 86% of the GOP base. Obama holds 71% of the Democrat base. Independents can't make up their minds.  

http://www.surveyusa.com/...

The SurveyUSA poll released today for VA shows Obama trailing by 1 point, 48-47%. This is fine for Obama, especially since AA votes seem to be undercounted and disproportionately for McCain. Still, it does represent a loss of lead in a state that could put him over the top.

On the other hand, PPP shows him holding the lead in Colorado. The margin is 4 points, 48-44%. This may be the most important state in Obama's winning coalition

I am (sincerely) not one to look for sample problems in every poll that is released, but I do think that we should at least take note of some internal numbers from the latest Florida poll released by SUSA before the widespread panic starts.

So I am not saying here that SUSA's poll is crap, because I don't like cherry-picking polls. I'm just saying that we should take this into account when interpreting the results.

Campaign Diaries

I just read yesterday's SUSA poll numbers for Virginia. Pollster.com summarizes them as follows:

A new SurveyUSA poll in Virginia shows Sen. Barack Obama edging Sen. John McCain, 49% to 47%.

Just a month ago, Obama led McCain by 7 points in the state.

Reading this, you might think that McCain was doing well in the state. You would be wrong. More below.

Most of us know that SurveyUSA has been a fairly reliable pollster in the past, and although they royally screwed up the Indiana Democratic primary, they underestimated Obama's support, not overestimated it. Now, we have this poll rolling in...

Yes, you read right! Check it out.

The overall percentages seem sensible, with Obama leading 49-45%. Other demographics also are logical--the age differentials show Obama up big among the youngest voters, McCain clearly ahead among the oldest, and the two even with those in between. The gender breakdowns are McCain +17 among men and Obama +25 among women.

It's the racial ratios that are whack--McCain leads by 10 points among blacks, Obama by 15 among whites. The figures get even more ridiculous when you look at the running mate matchups, with McCain's lead among blacks growing to over 20 points in some cases!

Strange, to say the least

Released today, conducted Fri-Mon 6/13-6/16, 538 LV, MOE 4.3%.

Interesting tidbits: Obama leads every age category; he also leads every racial group. McCain does lead among men, but Obama does almost as well among dems as McCain does among repubs, which is unusual.

Since Obama only leads 66-33 among blacks there appears to be room for improvement even with a 9 point lead. Then again, the leads among whites and hispanics may be overly optimistic.

This is a little bit of a shocker... it's widely held that Barack Obama has a severe Appalachia problem, one that he would need to overcome in order to compete everywhere.  Few states exhibit his inherent problems more than Kentucky, but today, SUSA has polled Kentucky again and shown that Obama has slashed McCain's lead in Half.  
                  (5/18)  [3/16]
McCain: 53%  (56%) [64%]
Obama:  41% (32%) [28%]
Differ:     +12   +24   +36

The best news is that we're looking at McCain's likely ceiling and the trend for Obama is very promising.  Here's the party ID:

Democrats: Obama 59%, McCain 35%
Independents:  McCain 47%, Obama 42%

Ideology
Moderate: McCain 48%, Obama 47%
Liberal: Obama 80%, McCain 13%

It's all screwed up!!!

McCain ties among the young
18-34  McCain 48%  Obama 48%

Obama wins among 65 and over 48% to 39%

McCain wins 35-49 by 11% and Obama wins 50-64 by 12%

POBLANO (Nate) please downgrade SUSA not because of poor Obama showing in this poll but because they (SUSA) should know that these cross tabs are just crazy.

New McCain-Obama polls have been posted for Oregon and Washington. While these states have previously been shown to possibly be competitive in November, they both now appear to be securely in Obama's column. He leads Oregon 49-39 and Washington 52-36.

http://www.surveyusa.com/

Click on the charts for each state for more details--I would disregard the hypothetical running-mate matchups that are listed, as these are, as others have stated, almost certainly indicative of nothing more than relative name recognition.

Much of the punditocracy has been embarassing themselves with ridiculous VP assessments/predictions this week, generally pontificating on what they think would be the most successfuul or likely tickets.

While each have expressed their distinct "considered opinions" on who would be the best choices, so far they have been expressing unanimity on who they think would be a losing ticket. And that is, Obama/Edwards.

They use arguments like well he wasn't that great in 2004, could not even deliver the Carolinas, brings nothing to the ticket yada yada yada.

What they seem to forget is that this is not 2004. The country has moved to the left, conditions have changed and of course, Edwards did beat Hillary Clinton in Iowa.

http://www.surveyusa.com/

There's been several diaries today on the latest SurveyUSA poll of Ohio showing Obama beating McCain by 9 points, 48%-39%.  I caution you guys from getting too excited, to first take a look at the cross-tabs in the poll.

It assumes 52% of the voters will be Democrats, only 28% will be Republicans, and only 18% will be Independents.

Is this realistic?

The 2004 Ohio exit poll shows that the electorate was 40% Republican, only 35% Democratic, and 25% Independent.  This is a far cry from the 52% Democrats this month's poll shows.

Update: Some people asked about the 2006 numbers, given how much Ohio changed that year.  Well, from the 2006 exit poll, the electorate that wiped out Blackwell and DeWine was only 40% Democrat, 37% Republican, and 23% Independent.  That's an 8-point swing in our favor from 2004, but still nowhere near 52% Democratic turnout.

A new SUSA poll was released today and it shows Obama beating McCain by 9% in  Ohio.
http://www.surveyusa.com/...

Notice all the Press this morning that the new Q-Poll "Swing" State got?  It's got the full splash at Mark "Tool" Halperin's website...

Memo to Mark, MSM and Q-Poll: Obama is the Nominee; OBAMA HAS A DIFFERENT MAP

Hence the shocking part... Obama's Map is becoming reality; Virginia has been under polled and this would "shock" the Halperin's of the world hung up on Clinton's 2004 map

Case In POINT:  VIRGINIA - 13 EV's

Obama: 49% (35%)
McCain: 42% (55%)

Obama/Edwards:   53%
McCain/Huckabee: 41%

The Map has Changed, Electability has been redefined, and there is no Gender Gap in Virginia.

Yesterday there was a poll diaried about Obama vs. McCain in New Mexico, but today, in a state widely "worried" about in the Clinton Electability Arguement Gambit, it's clear as Day Barack Obama has nothing to worry about in Pennsylvania...

SUSA is now out with their new poll, including various head-to-head match ups.

Topline:

Obama:  48%  (42%)
McCain:  40%  (47%)
Undec:    12%  (21%)

White Voters:

Obama:  43%
McCain:  44%
Undec:    13%

I thought this was worth a look, as I haven't seen much VP polling yet.

Obviously, some of these names are not familiar to people, and that affects how the polling
numbers reflect. But it is a bitt telling to look at the results for the more familiar names.

These were done in NM 5/16 through 5/18.

The generic ballot results came out dead even at 44% each for Obama and McCain.
Which is convenient, for this experiment. Though I have seen better polls out of Rasmussen
for Obama recently.

Here are the results: Survey USA NM VP Polling

New SurveyUSA numbers out of Oregon: Obama 55, Clinton 42. Obama is up 1 point from last week, Clinton is down 1. The crosstabs seem to make more sense than the Suffolk +4 numbers from earlier.