While troubled to see McCain ahead in the latest Reuters/Zogby poll, I was even more surprised at the media's reaction. First of all, this is not the latest nationwide poll. It was conducted August 14-16. The latest nationwide poll is LA Times/Bloomberg, conducted August 16-18 (with a larger sample size), which has Obama leading by 2.

Second, Reuters/Zogby is most likely an outlier. Unless, of course, you're willing to believe that he's lost the support of 12 percent of voters between the ages of 18 and 29 in the last week.

But far more worrisome than Obama's performance in recent national polls are the numbers coming out of battleground states, particularly Ohio.

McCain and the Republicans like to say that Obama is just a good speech giver, but not a true leader.

We all know that's absolutely wrong - Obama's policies are worlds better than McCain's and he's a natural leader.

BUT, the DNC can't come soon enough: We need a speech!

So, a little poll from Zogby comes out and lots of people are in freakout mode, and Kos has front-paged about how silly that is.

Good.

Let me add one little bit o' info to the fire for each of you to chew on...

Anybody here remember 1992?

The hot topic lately seems to be how and why Barack Obama should be hitting John McCain with every negative attack imaginable.  The logic goes that while we all despise negatives, they work.  It is said that we may be the party and people of high minded ideals, but to succeed we need to get down in the gutter with Republicans and tear down John McCain.  

Republicans are playing to their base by being crass and combative.  Neocons are all about picking fights to further their own cause.  I hope that isn’t what we are becoming.  I hope to bring my kids into a world where pride, greed, and religion aren’t bringing about the deaths of millions of innocent people.  We are rewarding a strategy of bluster and aggression.  As long as we judge people by who has the biggest pair, hate and aggression will permeate to every aspect of our global society.

Barack Obama talks about the politics of raising everyone up, rather than tearing them down.  If you really believe this is the man who best represents your ideals then let him lead the country and party on the path he has chosen rather than push him and us to be something we are not.

As I see it, there is only the one thing, so this won't be a substantive Diary with a lot of documentation, links and evidence.

A lot of us are holding our breath, waiting to see what Hillary and Bill will say at the convention - and I strongly doubt that I am the only one who felt some degree of dismay when it turned out that Hillary and Bill will be speaking on two of the four nights at the convention.  We all know why Barack has agreed to this; he is walking a tightrope - and very carefully.

Some have questioned whether there is a plot afoot; either to steal the nomination or damage Obama enough to ensure that he is a one-term president.  It is at least arguable that the Clintons have done little to allay those fears - thus far.

Obama is now presented with the biggest political opportunity of this campaign and his single best prospect for defining John McCain for what he is – a no-hold-barred Rovian political opportunist who is willing to engage in hyperbole, misrepresentation and outright lying to question the patriotism of his political opponents.  Americans do not like people like John McCain.  Generally speaking, Americans are skeptical of people like John McCain who habitually tout their own patriotism while questioning the patriotism of others.  And more importantly, Americans have been forced to endure the last 8 years of failed government under George W. Bush, a person who, just like John McCain, is willing to lie about the patriotism of his political opponents.

Cross posted from Future Majority - blogging progressive youth politics.

I wanted to make a quick comment about Chris Bower's mostly excellent article on the changing demographics of the country and the Democratic coalition.  In his piece, Bowers says (emphasis mine):

There's an amazing article in The New York Times. A true must read.

Obama and McCain’s "Slur du Jour"

Barack Obama faces a quandary: how to respond to the McCain campaign’s Niagara Falls of negative attacks, a "slur du jour" since Steve Schmidt took charge that pummeled Obama’s lead.

If this was preconcieved, I must admit that it was executed brilliantly. Here's how the plot went.

It was understood that McCain will benefit from internation crisis this Fall.
It was also understood that he will not get much mileage out of Iraq/Pakistan/ Afganistan conflict. At very least, Obama will tie him there.
A new international crisis needed for November. Not any crisis, but serious one, one that will capture Americans' fears once again.
How about Cold War II vs. Russia, asked McBush?

From First Read:

OBAMA ECHOES CLINTON 'FIGHTER' MESSAGE

MARTINSVILLE, Va. -- As Obama has focused on the economy almost exclusively on the campaign trail in recent days, he has begun to sound more and more like his former rival Hillary Clinton, co-opting her rhetoric on being a "fighter" for ordinary Americans....

"That’s why I promise you this: that if you will vote for me, if you give me that opportunity, if you give me that chance, that I will fight for you every single day. I will wake up in that White House thinking about the people of Martinsville and the people of Henry County and how I can make your life better," he said, echoing a line Clinton often used at the end of her speeches.

If you believe the media CW, Obama is a sure loser if he doesn’t pick the bastard love child of Curtis LeMay and Dean Acheson who was trained from birth in ninja tactics and CIA dirty tricks.  But let’s remember something: those people are clowns...

DO NOT BELIEVE THEM. "FOREIGN POLICY CRED" IS A WEAKNESS NOT A STRENGTH. (continued)

Obama:

I want somebody who has integrity, who’s in politics for the right reasons, I want somebody who is independent. Somebody who is able to say to me, ‘You know what, Mr. President, I think you’re wrong on this and here’s why,’ and who will help me think through major issues and consult with me, would be a key advisor. I want somebody who is capable of being president and who I would trust to be president. That’s the first criteria for VP.  And the final thing is, I want a president (SIC) who shares with me a passion to make the lives of the American people better than they are right now.  I want someone who is not in it just because they want to have their name up in lights or end up being president. I want somebody who is mad right now that people are losing their jobs. And is mad right now that people have seen their incomes decline, and wants to rebuild the middle class in this country. That’s the kind of person that I want; somebody who in their gut knows where they came from and believes that we have to grow this country from the bottom up.

OMG guys, did you know that Obama is going to pick his VP choice soon?  You know what would be HILARIOUS??  A FAKEOUT!!!!  Wouldn't that be SO FUCKING FUNNY??

I know, now that you've gotten nauseous, hear me out. And yes this is another suggestion from a nobody but it dovetails with what Josh Marshall has argued about how Obama needs consistent arguments.

Flame me if you want. Call me a concern troll. But I see what McCain is doing and Obama is not doing and something really needs to be done about it.

And here's the Rove recipe. Attack in 3s. Sounds simple. It is.

I witnessed Bush beat Ann Richards for governor and he did it by picking three issues which were weak about Richard's past 4 year term. He repeated these three over and over and over. Soon the campaign became about those three arguments. I believe one was a rise in teenage crime. There was so little to criticize her on but he found three. Soon the campaign becamse about those three issues and Richards was forced to play defense. And despite great popularity, she lost to Shrub.

It was Karl Rove who did this and he laughed about it later. Americans have such a short attention span, they won't spend time disecting issues. Pick three points and run with them. That's all you need. Three weaknesses of your opponent.

Why threes? It works. When writing persuasive papers or making a closing argument, uses threes. It works. Simple. Direct. Repeatedly.

this comment from rfahey22 over at open left got me thinking

Maybe they're buying time
and trying to persuade someone on the fence (such as Warner) to accept the nomination.  Otherwise I would agree that a Friday/Saturday announcement would be strange.

obviously i have no inside knowledge but hey i'll give a shot for shits & giggles. i know trying to guess this is teh stoopid but f**k it, this is not speculation this is a prediction. follow me down the rabbit hole.

I just got a text from Senator Barack Obama....and I am PISSED!

The following press release just hit my mailbox a few minutes ago.

Today the Obama Campaign and the Democratic National Committee announced a proposal to establish a special commission to recommend changes to the Democratic Party's rules for delegate selection and presidential primary timing for future presidential cycles. The proposal will be presented to the Convention Rules Committee on Saturday in Denver.

The 'Democratic Change Commission' will address three issues 1) changes to the opening of the window and pre-window, 2) reducing the number of superdelegates and 3) changes to the caucus system. The goal of the commission will be to ensure that no primary or caucus is held prior to the first Tuesday in March of 2012, with the exception of the approved pre-window states, whose contests would be held during February 2012.

After ten days overseas, one week on vacation, and tons of negative ads from McCain, Obama is finally tanking in the polls and the electoral vote count.
Gosh what does a guy have to do to become the underdog?
The Electoral Map
Stay with me!  

I was out yesterday doing my door to door canvassing in Jersey, when I was presented with something that Im sure people like me, canvassing for Obama, have met up wth before. The most vocal, though rarely visible, PUMA supporter.  Normally you can still smell them a mile away by the still posted Hillary 08 lawn signs, Obama lawn signs crossed out, or the now fashionable Women for McCain lawn sign.  This house had neither.  Just a plain lawn, no adornments.  Follow me, below the fold for more